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Numerator Introduces Household Penetration Acceleration Score to Help Brands Identify New Behaviors

Since COVID-19, Canned Foods Are Winning with Sales More Than 12 Weeks Ahead of 2019

Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has launched a Household Penetration Acceleration Score that quantifies the extent to which cumulative household penetration has accelerated year-to-date relative to 2019. This helps brands understand the accelerated rate at which households are buying their products.

Household penetration is often used as a key performance indicator for brands because it helps quantify brand health and growth opportunities. This is a critical aspect of brands planning inventory for second half 2020 and understanding repeat buying opportunities that have been created during COVID-19 which may return with a potential second wave.

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“Household penetration is a critical metric in the CPG industry and much of the data being used is incorrect,” said Eric Belcher, CEO, Numerator. “Brands are relying on data that is familiar, but no longer accurate, given the rise in non-traditional retailers. Better understanding household penetration gives brands a platform for growth.”

The Numerator Household Penetration Acceleration Score shows the degree to which 16 center-store categories are ahead of or behind where they were in 2019 on a year-to-date basis along with additional context to help decompose demand via buy rate, purchase frequency, spend per trip, etc. Cumulative household penetration tends to build predictably, which is not the case in 2020. Key observations among the 16 categories evaluated include:

Category

HH Penetration
Acceleration Score

Canned Soup

+12 weeks

Canned Vegetables

+13 weeks

Cleansers

+2 weeks

Cold, Cough & Flu

+3 weeks

Crackers

+6 weeks

Digestive Health

On track

Frozen Dinners & Meals

+3 weeks

Hands Soaps & Sanitizers

+10 weeks

Ice Cream & Novelties

+3 weeks

Juices

+3 weeks

Laundry Detergent

+2 weeks

Non-seasonal Candy

On Track

Packaged Cookies

+3 Weeks

Pain Relievers

+4 weeks

Shampoos & Conditioners

+2 weeks

Yogurt & Yogurt Drinks

+2 weeks

  • Canned soups and vegetables have the greatest increase in household penetration. With the highest acceleration in building their buyer base earlier in the year, this provides brands in this category more upside opportunity for repeat buying—provided they activate consumption—as consumers may rely on the shelf-stable nature of these products to fill long-term pantry needs.
  • Not surprisingly, soaps and sanitizers are well ahead and will likely stay ahead given high consumption reporting.
  • Many brands are running 2-3 weeks ahead, likely indicating an acceleration in usage aligned with the shelter-in-place orders.

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Source: Numerator OmniPanel analysis

Numerator is the only omnichannel consumer insights panel that can conduct Demand Decomposition Analyses that quantify consumer behavior for the same household across channels, retailers and trips to provide a complete look at their purchase behavior. This provides brands the ability to better understand consumer behavior in the wake of COVID-19, as well as to adjust their supply chain and marketing plans to enable better short and long-term brand health.

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