New RethinkX Report: Tech sector disruption convergence is turning means of global production on its head, opening breakthrough possibilities as well as risk of civilization collapse
In the next ten years the convergence of key technologies will completely disrupt five foundational sectors – information, energy, food, transportation and materials – that underpin the global economy and with them every major industry in the world. Costs will fall by 10x or more, while production processes become an order of magnitude (10x) more resource-efficient, using 90% fewer natural resources and producing 10-100x less waste. The technology disruptions ahead, and the rapid non-linear change they will drive, are not – as mainstream analysts predict – another Industrial Revolution. Instead, the world is undergoing a far more fundamental shift, according to findings of a new report, “Rethinking Humanity: Five Foundational Sector Disruptions, the Lifecycle of Civilizations and the Coming Age of Freedom.”
“Our very model of production is being turned on its head,” said report co-author and RethinkX co-founder Tony Seba. “And with it comes enormous opportunity and risk. We can use the upcoming convergence of technology disruptions to solve the greatest challenges of humankind – inequality, poverty, environmental destruction if, and only if, we learn from history, recognize what is happening, understand the implications and make critical choices now; because these very same technologies that hold such promise are also accelerating civilization’s collapse.”
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From Extraction to Creation-Based Production System: 10x improvements can lead to advanced civilization
“Rethinking Humanity” details the current shift from the prevailing extraction and exploitation model of production to a model of localized creation from limitless, ubiquitous building blocks – a world built not on coal, oil, steel, livestock, and concrete, but on photons, electrons, DNA, molecules and (q)bits. This shift enables a 10x improvement in costs and efficiency across five foundational sectors.
Analyzing similar disruptions, patterns and processes through ten thousand years of history, the report finds that 10x advancements in those five foundational sectors have driven the emergence of new, vastly more capable and advanced civilizations, but only when combined with adaptive, dramatically improved organizational capabilities – that is society’s organizing principles, social governance, and economic systems and institutions.
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The report finds that the cost of the “American Dream” defined in terms of 1,000 miles/month of transport, 2,000 kWh/month of energy, complete nutrition (including 100 grams of protein, 250 grams of healthy carbs, 70 grams of fats, and micronutrients), 100 liters of clean water a day, continuing education, and communications, could be as low as $250/month by 2030.
Unlike mainstream analysts’ linear forecasts based on mechanistic, siloed models, RethinkX takes a systems approach that has been consistently more accurate in predicting the speed and scale of technological disruptions
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