China and COVID-19 Threaten US Higher Education’s Status

By AIT Staff Writer On Sep 3, 2020

For a long time, America’s higher education system has been competing only with the UK and Europe’s top universities in terms of global reach and attracting the best student, teaching, and research talent. But, according to the Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings 2021 and a recent THE survey of 200 global higher education leaders on their opinions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, outside of its elite institutions, US higher education is facing the stark reality of decline, and huge challenges if it wants to retain its position on the world stage.

Having a record of bagging 8 out of 10 positions in the globally-recognized rankings, it could be easily assumed that the US higher education is in fine health, but from the evidence it clear that Chinese universities are taking pace.

Mainland China’s Tsinghua University becomes the first-ever Asian institution to break into THE World University Rankings top 20, claiming joint 20^th this year, while the country’s representation in the top 100 has doubled year on year up from three in 2020 to six in 2021. In 2016, China had just two universities in the top 200, in 2021 that number stands at seven.

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And outside of the elite top 200 band, US institutions have been on a consistent downward trend since 2016 versus their Chinese counterparts.

China Shows Continous Succession

In addition, when looking at the number of globally published citations for research – a clear measure of the impact of a university’s research on a global level – Chinese universities have been closing the gap on the US for some time. For the first time in THE World University Rankings 2021, the citation score for middle-ranked Chinese and US universities have begun to converge.

The warning signs are compounded by the threats posed by the coronavirus pandemic and the possible impact on the international student movement and public funding. THE’s recent survey of 200 global university leaders showed that US leaders (25 respondents) are more concerned than their global counterparts, and particularly China, when it comes to the damaging impact coronavirus could have on the sector.

Just 51% of US leaders think that science and research will become significantly higher priorities for the US Government once the pandemic is over. This compares to 78% of their Chinese counterparts and 71% in the UK. Combined with concerns that science and research budgets from public and charitable sources won’t rise after the pandemic (just 48% agree budgets will rise from these sources, compared to 74% in China) if the views held in the survey materialize, the US could find itself struggling to fund research compared to international colleagues.

This fear is compounded by the belief by 44% of US leaders that the pandemic will reduce the government’s willingness to invest in higher education over the next five years (compared to just 8% in China). Perhaps most concerning is the almost universal belief that the pandemic is likely to result in institutions going bankrupt (92% in the US versus 0% in China).

With research and government funding at risk, other funding sources could become vital for success.

Top 10 The World University Rankings for 2021

2021 RANKING	INSTITUTION	COUNTRY	2020 RANKING	CHANGE
1	University of Oxford	UK	1	0
2	Stanford University	US	4	+2
3	Harvard University	US	7	+4
4	California Institute of Technology	US	2	-2
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	US	5	0
6	University of Cambridge	UK	3	-3
7	University of California, Berkeley	US	=13	+6
8	Yale University	US	8	0
9	Princeton University	US	6	-3
10	University of Chicago	US	9	-1

One area that leaders could turn to is international student fees, but 92% of US leaders believe COVID-19 will result in them being able to recruit fewer international students, compared to just 57% in China, and 67% in the UK, the only other nation to have institutions appear in the top 10 of the World University Rankings 2021.

64% of US leaders agree or strongly agree that this reduction will have a significant negative effect on their institution’s finances and that this could be a longer-term challenge. 92% agree or strongly agree that there will be diminished student interest in studying abroad for the next five years.

Together, the World University Rankings 2021 and the THE global leaders’ survey (conducted in May 2020) paint a worrying picture for the US that could see China’s rise through the rankings accelerate and a dramatic rebalancing of the global knowledge economy in the coming years.

Phil Baty, Chief Knowledge Officer at THE commented: “The THE World University Rankings 2021 are a real wake-up call for the US higher education system, which has long dominated the global knowledge economy alongside the UK. It continues a trend over the past five years that has seen the rapid rise of China breaking into the top 100 at the expense of western institutions. The specter of COVID-19 is yet to be seen, but it is clear from our leaders survey that without long-term commitments to funding, and an ability to reduce reliance on international student fees, China is in pole position to benefit at the expense of the United States on the global higher education stage.”

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