According to a study carried out by Sopra Steria Next – the consultancy arm of Sopra Steria Group, a major player in the European tech sector – the generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) market is set to grow exponentially between now and 2028. Among the initial findings, the study shows a more than tenfold increase in the generative AI market, from around $8 billion (USD) in 2023 to more than $100 billion in 2028.
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“At the start of the gold rush, the first to strike it rich were actually the ones selling shovels and pickaxes; similarly, despite its lightning-fast market penetration, generative AI generated only limited revenue in 2023, essentially for cloud providers and their graphics processor manufacturers,” explained Fabrice Asvazadourian, Chief Executive Officer of Sopra Steria Next. “Our study shows that 2024 will mark the beginning of an exponential rise in the monetisation of generative AI, with more and more services being sold, both by major tech players as an extension of their current product ranges and by a multitude of startups that are beginning to emerge, targeting specific use cases.”
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Technology on the verge of scaling up
According to research by Sopra Steria Next, the generative AI market is expected to increase tenfold by 2028 to around $100 billion, equating to annual growth of 65%. This commercial take-off in the generative AI market can be explained in particular by the introduction of policies and guidelines governing the controlled use of GenAI, particularly in the business world, as well as greater competition between major generalist AI models and the rise of specialised large language models (LLMs) enabling the proliferation of applications targeting multiple use cases.
The study predicts that generative AI will continue to mature and includes recommendations for senior executives to gradually implement generative AI applications that will enable managers and their staff to familiarise themselves with these new tools while embedding guidelines and policies for controlled, compliant use of generative AI into their operating methods and modernising their data management technology.
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This approach is based on projections of how generative AI’s capabilities and use cases will develop over the next 36 months:
Currently, and over the next 18 months, its use will mainly involve GenAI solutions provided by software development companies and technology partners, focused on assistance and service for users under their supervision and with them in charge of its improvement. Sopra Steria Next calls this first phase “GenAI augmented by humans”. The study highlights four highly mature areas in which generative AI can be applied: digital marketing, software development, customer service and knowledge management (see below).
Next, the following 18 months will see a major acceleration in the deployment of generative AI at scale. This will include new GenAI applications that will expand and improve upon existing predictive artificial intelligence applications. The first company-specific use cases will also start to emerge, with applications refined by startups or customised in cases where the company has a mass of proprietary data. This second phase, which the consultancy calls “GenAI customised by proprietary data”, will see companies substantially ramp up their investments in GenAI skills and infrastructure.
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Finally, in three to four years’ time, GenAI – by combining optimised generalist multimodal models with specialised models – will have greatly reduced its risk of error and hallucinations, and will be ready to start being applied to industrial-scale business processes with virtually no need for supervision, giving rise to a new wave of automation. GenAI will then enter this third phase, which Sopra Steria Next calls “GenAI applied to the core”.
By 2028, the main business sectors to use generative AI will be financial services (25%-30%), healthcare (15%-20%), consumer goods and retail (15%-20%), and media and entertainment (10%-15%).
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